Double Deck Blackjack
Fortunately, blackjack has one of the lowest house edges of any casino game. If we assume a standard game in which is a 6-deck shoe is used, dealer stands on soft 17, the player may double on any first two cards, the player may split up to four times, and the player may double. Best Double Deck Blackjack Strategy Tactics. Double Deck Blackjack Rules. With double deck blackjack, two decks are in play. One interesting rule change is that dealers stand on soft 17s. In standard blackjack.
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Blackjack odds are percentage figures which represent your probability of losing or winning a hand. They can also represent the house edge or their profit margins as well. Usually probability odds don't mean much on the short term, but they clearly average out in the long term and this is why the casinos always win over the long term.
We decided to make a few tables and charts of the most common blackjack probability odds for various scenarios and situations found while playing blackjack. The most important odds percentage represents the dealer's edge in the game. This is the long term advantage that they have which will eventually take your money away. Blackjack is actually one of the most popular games in the casino and also has some of the lowest odds of all the casino games, except casino craps of course. Generally their edge ranges from 1% to 15% depending on what variation of blackjack you are playing.
How to Beat the Casino House Odds
There is one feature that makes blackjack more desirable than any other casino game. There is actually a way to beat the house edge by increasing your odds. In fact, your probability odds in blackjack can be increase to the point where you would actually be making the profit in the long term, essentially turning the casino into a personal ATM. This practice is known as card counting and casinos don't like this because they know they will be losing money.
Before you start card counting, you should learn 'blackjack basic strategy', which is the mathematically correct way to play every move in blackjack to get the best odds. This can lower the house edge to less than 1 percent. When that percentage goes to a negative number such as -1%, then it is you who has the edge over the casino. This is when you complement basic strategy with card counting to get the highest efficiencies.
Odds vs. Dealer Up Card
The first odds chart shows what kind of advantage the player has vs. the dealer based on what his up card is showing. The first column in the chart is what card the dealer has showing after the cards have been dealt. The second column of the table shows the dealer's probability of going bust based on each card. The last column shows the advantage the player has and the probability of winning based on the basic strategy theory. As you can see, the dealer has about a 43% chance of going bust when he has a 5 showing as an up card. At the same time, the player has about 23% advantage as well. Notice that the player advantage goes negative when the 10 cards and ace start showing up. This means the player is more likely to lose.
| Dealer's Up Card | Dealer Odds of Busting | Player Advantage Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.08% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| 10 | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| J | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| Q | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| K | 21.43% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Blackjack odds of Busting While Taking a Hit
This chart shows the probabilities of going bust after taking a hit. Busting means that your card total would go over 21 points and would be a hard total as well. The highest score you can get when being initially dealt two cards is 21 points so you can never go bust. This means if you took a hit on a hard 21, you would have a 100% probablity of going bust, which is common sense. Also, if you have 11 points or less, it is impossible to go over 21 points on the next hit and your odds of going bust would be 0 percent.
| Total Hand Value | Probability of Going Bust |
|---|---|
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or less | 0% |
House Advantage with Multiple Number of Decks
The number of 52 card decks in a game of blackjack influences the house edge. In some cases, the odds increase in favor of the casino when more decks are used. The advantage edge can be as much as 1% towards the casino and this is a big number in terms of odds over the long term. As you can see here, a single deck of card gives the lowest edge for the casino and gives the player better odds. Multiple decks such as eight decks increases the house edge almost 18 times more than it would for the single deck!
| Number of Decks | House Odds Advantage |
|---|---|
| Single Deck | 0.04% |
| Double Deck | 0.42% |
| Four Decks | 0.61% |
| Six Decks | 0.67% |
| Eight Decks | 0.70% |
Two Card Frequency Odds
The next odds table deals with the first two cards being dealt or the 2 card frequency odds. Every player is dealt two cards at the beginning of a round of blackjack so this chart tells you the percentage of getting different categories of hands. A natural blackjack is only 4.8%, which essentially is an ace dealt with a ten card straight off the initial deal. Normally the odds are 3 to 2 and you would win $3 for every $2 wagered. It's a small percentage but it's the most desirable hand to get. The lowest hand you can get is two points (two aces). This is part of the decision hands group where players are usually dealt soft hands and can make decisions without going bust. This group is the most common.
The other category is the hard standing hands. These hands are somewhat desirable because of the high scores likely to beat the dealer. These are the second most frequent two card blackjack hands. Finally there is a no bust two card hand. No bust means any two card hand that won't bust on the next hit, such as any soft hand or hard hand that is 11 points or less.
| Two Card Combination | Frequency Percentage |
|---|---|
| Natural 21 Blackjack | 4.8% |
| Hard Standing (17 - 20) | 30.0% |
| Decision Hands (2-16) | 38.7% |
| No Bust | 26.5% |
| Total (all two card hands) | 100% |
Probability Edge for Each Card Removed from Deck
The next table shows how much your odds improve after when certain cards have been dealt and removed from the deck. Certain cards taken out of the deck and increase or decrease your blackjack odds percentage and the house edge.
This is very important for card counting. If you want the absolute perfect odds in card counting, you have to acount for each small change in the odds whenever a card is dealt. As you can see from the table, when small cards are taken out of play, the odds increase in your favor overall. This is a paramount property of card counting. The opposite happens when large cards are dealt. Your odds begin to decrease. When you are counting cards, you will notice your count decreasing when large cards are dealt.
You can imagine how complicated it would be to be adding these numbers in your head while card counting at the same time. If your mind was a computer, it would be easier to keep track of the percentage. Some people can do this, and this is the way to become a perfect card counter! It is easier to keep track of the odds when playing with a single blackjack deck. For example, when five cards are seen on the table, they offer a 0.67% increase in your advantage. In fact, when a lot of fives are used up, your odds will be much higher than if any of the other low cards were used up, even the six point cards. Also, these effects are cumulative so you always need to keep track of the odds after every card is dealt. This data is actually quite amazing!
| Removed Card | Effect on Odds |
|---|---|
| 2 | 0.40% |
| 3 | 0.43% |
| 4 | 0.52% |
| 5 | 0.67% |
| 6 | 0.45% |
| 7 | 0.30% |
| 8 | 0.01% |
| 9 | -0.15% |
| 10 | -0.51% |
| Jack | -0.51% |
| Queen | -0.51% |
| King | -0.51% |
| Ace | -0.59% |
Dealer Final Hand Probability Odds
This next table shows the odds of what the dealer's final hand will be. Usually in blackjack, the dealer must hit on 16 and stand on 17. These rules are slightly different for other variations of twenty-one. So generally, the odds of the dealer's final score being 16 are 0% because he must hit. This table will show the probability of the dealer busting or getting a non-bust hand as well as natural blackjacks.
| Dealer Final Hand | Probability of Getting Final Hand |
|---|---|
| Natural Blackjack | 4.82% |
| 21 (more than 2 cards) | 7.36% |
| 20 | 17.58% |
| 19 | 13.48% |
| 18 | 13.81% |
| 17 | 14.58% |
| Non-Bust (less than 21) | 71.63% |
| Bust (more than 21) | 28.37% |
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You’ve heard it time and time again – the fewer decks used in a game of blackjack, the better your odds.
Have you ever stopped to wonder why this is?
I got the inspiration to write this blog post after fielding a question from a buddy of mine who isn’t much of a gambler. He’s preparing to head to a bachelor party in Vegas and started to study blackjack. He noticed that everyone says “fewer decks is better,” but didn’t understand. After all, he said, the overall proportion of each rank of card is the same no matter how many decks are shuffled together.
This post is all about deck size and blackjack. We’ll cover why fewer decks is better, in detail, and include a little bit of math where appropriate.
Fewer Decks = More Blackjacks
Double Deck Blackjack Odds
The main reason we say that fewer decks is better for players is that, in each deck, exactly 1/13th of all cards are Aces.
Yes, my friend was right, the initial proportions of card values to one another is equal no matter how many decks you play with. The reason you’ll be dealt more blackjacks with a smaller shoe is that the impact of removing a card from the game is greater in a game with fewer overall cards.
Odds of Drawing Blackjack in a Single-Deck Game
Let’s start by getting an idea of how often a player will draw blackjack in a single-deck game. To get to the probability of drawing a blackjack from a one-deck shoe, all you have to do is multiply the odds of drawing an Ace by the odds of drawing any card with a value of ten points. We know that a single deck of fifty-two cards contains four Aces and sixteen cards worth ten points – four tens, four Jacks, four Queens, and four Kings.
That means probability of drawing any Ace is 4/52, which we simplify to 1/13. Once you’ve drawn your Ace, the probability of then drawing any ten-point card is 16/51. Notice anything about those two numbers? The first probability is based on a fifty-two card deck, but since you’ve already drawn a card, you have to now work out the probability of drawing one of sixteen ten-point cards from a deck of fifty-one.
This change in the divisor is the reason why a smaller number of decks is advantageous to the blackjack player, and gives the house a distinct disadvantage.
If you want to get an accurate number of the likelihood of drawing a blackjack from a single-deck shoe, you actually need to double your result, since you could technically get a blackjack with either a ten-point card OR an Ace at the start.
All told, the probability of drawing a blackjack from a single deck shoe is 4.83%. That’s the probability of drawing an Ace (1/13) multiplied by the probability of drawing any ten-point card (16/51), multiplied by two.
Odds of Drawing Blackjack in a Two-Deck Game
To give you an idea of the statistical difference between one and two decks, let’s look at the odds of drawing a blackjack when you start with 104 cards instead of 52.
The probability of drawing any Ace from a two-deck shoe is 8/104. The probability of then drawing any ten-point card from the same shoe is 32/103. When we multiply those two together, then double the result, we get 4.78%.
Odds of drawing a blackjack in a one-deck shoe = 4.83%. Odds of drawing a blackjack in a two-deck shoe = 4.78%. By adding a deck (and not changing any rules of the game), the casino has decreased your likelihood of drawing a blackjack by 0.05%. Remember, though, that each one of those lost blackjacks would have been a win under standard casino rules at a 3:2 payout. Losing those 3:2 payouts makes a big impact on your bottom line, and on the casino’s.
Why do Double Downs Work Better with Fewer Decks?
If you’re following along closely, you’ve probably already figured out that the same phenomenon that makes blackjacks more likely with fewer decks probably also affects the likelihood of a successful Double Down. If you double your initial hand (6 and 5), you’ll be more likely to draw a face card to form a total of 21 if the game uses fewer decks.
Here’s where things get tricky – don’t forget that your dealer also benefits from these changes at lower deck counts. It’s not just the player that has a shot at more blackjacks. The reason why this fact doesn’t impact the game as much as it might is that players win 3:2 for blackjack, while the house wins just even money. Also, the dealer can’t Double Down, while the player can. That additional doubled-win gives the player a bigger advantage than the dealer.
Conclusion
Double Deck Blackjack Casinos
All things being equal, meaning all rules being pretty much identical, a blackjack game that uses a smaller number of decks to build the shoe is advantageous for the player. One situation I’d warn blackjack players about – casinos that offer single-deck blackjack with a 6:5 or even 1:1 payout for player blackjack. The implication is that the casino is only willing to give you those improved single-deck odds in exchange for a reduced penalty at the point of player blackjack. In the case of games that don’t pay the traditional 3:2, don’t play them just because of the appeal of the single deck setup.